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Mounting concerns exist about the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have often been tense. After a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations remained at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a decision that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated again.