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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still