Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
